FA Cup analysis: Brighton vs Chelsea - Five key battles and score prediction
Brighton host Chelsea in an FA Cup fourth-round clash on Saturday, February 8, that promises to entertain.
The two sides met at the start of the season in a chaotic 4-2 win for the Blues at Stamford Bridge, which saw superstar Cole Palmer score a first-half hat-trick.
Now, after a turbulent January, Chelsea will be hoping that Monday night’s 2-1 win over West Ham is the start of a run that can regain momentum which saw them just four points off league leaders Liverpool at Christmas.
Meanwhile, Brighton will be looking for an immediate response to their 7-0 battering by Nottingham Forest at the weekend, with not much better solution than a good old-fashioned cup run.
Sports News Blitz’s resident Chelsea expert Henry Eccles looks at five key battles and gives his score prediction for the match.
Enzo Maresca vs Fabian Hurzeler
The FA Cup clash between the two Premier League sides is one that both head coaches could very much do with winning.
The pressure on Chelsea boss Enzo Maresca has ramped up since Christmas, as despite the victory over West Ham, the Blues had only won one of their last seven Premier League games prior.
Things aren’t much better for Fabian Hurzeler.
Brighton’s horrific defeat to Forest was their worst in the league in 67 years, described by the young German coach Hurzeler as the lowest point in his managerial career.
The two head coaches have only met on one occasion before, a chaotic 4-2 win for Chelsea at Stamford Bridge earlier on in the season.
In that game, both sides went gung-ho, Brighton’s high line was constantly exposed by a Chelsea side strong on transitions.
Maresca’s side was led by hat-trick hero Palmer, yet always susceptible at the back themselves.
Blues keeper Robert Sanchez gifted his former team their two goals with the sort of big mistakes that led to Maresca’s decision to swap him out for Filip Jorgensen on the night of Monday, February 3.
Brighton have not exactly mellowed since either.
In their defeat to the Tricky Trees on Saturday, Hurzeler included five attackers in front of lone midfielder Jack Hinshelwood in his starting XI and paid the price.
It is safe to say that similar tactics against Maresca’s young Chelsea team hunting for their first bit of silverware as a group would not be best advised.
Moises Caicedo vs Carlos Baleba
When Moises Caicedo left Brighton to join Chelsea for a jaw-dropping £115 million in 2023, the Seagulls brought in young Cameroonian midfielder Carlos Baleba as his replacement.
Both players had shaky starts at their new homes, but now look like mainstays in their sides’ midfield, and the football world has taken notice.
Caicedo and Baleba are vital for how their teams play, both are do-it-all midfielders that love a crunching tackle just as much as a line-breaking pass or carrying the ball up the pitch.
Only Crystal Palace’s Daniel Munoz and Everton’s Idrissa Gueye have made more tackles than Caicedo this season, while Baleba’s performances garnered interest in January’s transfer window from the likes of Manchester City.
Baleba scored in the earlier fixture this season, but if he gets the nod against Chelsea again, another tough midfield battle with Caicedo awaits, one that could very well decide the game.
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Reece James vs Kaoru Mitoma
There has been a lot of noise surrounding Kaoru Mitoma recently.
The Japanese winger was subject to interest from Saudi Arabia in January, resulting in a frankly bizarre £75 million bid from Cristiano Ronaldo’s Al Nassr.
Perhaps what was more bizarre was that Brighton rejected the bid, even if Mitoma remains one of the more exciting wingers in the Premier League.
But with the transfer window finally shut, we can all focus on the actual football again and look ahead to what should be an interesting clash between Mitoma and right-back Reece James.
James’ season has again been patchy thanks to injury problems, but the Blues captain is slowly getting back up to speed since being reintroduced at the start of the year.
Strong performances against Wolves and Bournemouth, in which he came off the bench to equalise with an extra time free kick, have given Chelsea fans encouragement that the academy graduate can contribute to a strong second half of the season.
Mitoma, however, perhaps represents James’ toughest test yet since his return.
The Brighton winger has made more progressive carries (109) than anyone in the Premier League this season according to The Athletic, putting him ahead of Jeremy Doku and Dejan Kulusevski (102).
On Saturday then, up against a tricky winger in Mitoma, it will be interesting to see how the Chelsea captain fares.
Marc Guiu vs Lewis Dunk
A fourth-round FA Cup tie, no matter how big or small the two teams may be, can always throw up a surprise selection.
Both of Chelsea’s recognised strikers, Nicolas Jackson and Marc Guiu, seemed to pick up injuries against West Ham, but Maresca was quick to quell fears over anything too serious.
Christopher Nkunku should also be available for selection after coming on as a substitute on Monday night, but it was the young Spaniard Guiu who really impressed.
Alongside Pedro Neto, Guiu brought an energy to Chelsea’s forward line that has been lacking in recent months and helped turn what was a 1-0 deficit around.
Despite just turning 19, Guiu is a right handful for any defender.
He presses like a charging bull at Pamplona and routinely makes smart runs in behind.
He knows where the goal is too - in December, he scored a hat trick against Shamrock Rovers in the UEFA Conference League.
Putting Guiu up against an experienced Premier League defender like Lewis Dunk on Saturday could be a tough but welcome test for the former Barcelona youngster.
At the same time, the Brighton captain isn’t exactly at the peak of his powers.
In the 7-0 defeat on Saturday, February 1, the scoring was opened when Dunk flicked Morgan Gibbs-White’s cross into his own net.
The own goal was Dunk’s seventh in the Premier League, equalling the tallies of Jamie Carragher, Phil Jagielka and Martin Skrtel, now joint second behind former Man City man Richard Dunne (10).
The 33-year-old went on to label the performance against Forest as ‘embarrassing’ and hopes to find consistency in what has been a rollercoaster of a season.
A potential face-off with young Guiu, however, would surely be anything but an easy ride.
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Cole Palmer vs Joao Pedro
When anything good happens for Chelsea or Brighton, it usually involves these two.
Under a more tactically rigid head coach in Maresca, Chelsea fans had a right to be slightly concerned that Palmer wouldn’t enjoy the freer role that brought him success under Mauricio Pochettino last season.
And although Palmer isn’t quite as near the top of the goalscoring chart as he was last year, he is no doubt still Chelsea’s main man.
The former Man City starlet has racked up 20 goal involvements in 24 Premier League appearances this season and is the only U23 player to make the top 10 in the race for the European Golden Shoe.
Not bad, not bad at all.
As mentioned before, Palmer has had joy against Brighton already this season.
He scored a gloriously curled free kick the pick of the bunch in his hat-trick against the Seagulls in September.
Meanwhile, Brighton themselves have a dangerous man in the form of Brazilian forward, Joao Pedro.
Pedro has been involved in 10 goals in 18 Premier League appearances so far, notably enjoying matches against members of the so-called Big Six.
The former Watford star has already scored three times against Arsenal, once against Manchester United, and notched a goal and assist against Man City earlier this campaign.
Even when the likes of Palmer can bail them out, Chelsea will certainly have to be wary of Pedro’s talents if they want to progress to the fifth round of the FA Cup.
Score Prediction
If this one is anything like the previous affair in September, and with both teams still leaky at the back, expect another chaotic encounter to throw up high lines, high pressure, and a high chance of mistakes.
In that game, it was Chelsea’s attacking quality that eventually made the difference, and the same is to be expected here against a Brighton side battered and bruised after a humiliating defeat.
If it isn’t Palmer that gets Chelsea the win, they have great attacking depth to rely upon, including the exciting Guiu, Neto and Noni Madueke.
Prediction: Brighton 2 - 3 Chelsea
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