UFC 310 betting tips: Alexandre Pantoja to retain the title, Shavkat Rakhmonov to finish Ian Machado Garry

UFC 310 promises exciting matchups, with Alexandre Pantoja defending his flyweight title against Kai Asakura, Shavkat Rakhmonov facing Ian Machado Garry and Ciryl Gane rematching Alexander Volkov in a heavyweight showdown.

Sports News Blitz MMA writer Niall Togher offers expert betting picks and fight previews for these three exciting matchups.

Title fights and top contenders highlight UFC 310

The UFC heads to Vegas for their final pay-per-view event of the year in UFC 310.

Originally, the card was set to be headlined by Belal Muhammad and Shavkat Rakhmonov for the UFC Welterweight title but after the champion Muhammad withdrew due to injury, the card changed.

The event will now be headlined by Alexandre Pantoja, who looks to make the third defence of his flyweight title against UFC debutant Kai Asakura.

He recently signed for the promotion after previously fighting in RIZIN and being a two-time bantamweight champion in the promotion.

Shavkat Rakhmonov remains on the card but slides down to the co-main event spot where he will take on Ian Machado Garry in a five-round fight, to see who will challenge Belal Muhammad for the welterweight title in 2025.

Also on the card is a rematch between two top-five heavyweights as Ciryl Gane rematches Alexander Volkov.

Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Asakura

Alexandre Pantoja is quickly becoming one of the greatest flyweights in MMA history, with an entertaining title run including wins over Brandon Moreno, Brandon Royval and Steve Erceg.

Pantoja is in a unique position where he has multiple wins over the top contenders in his division like Moreno and Royval, making a trilogy with either of those two a hard sell.

This led to the UFC signing Kai Asakura and throwing him into a championship setting on his debut - certainly not an easy task!

Pantoja is relatively old for a flyweight. It is therefore more than likely that the Brazilian’s reign is due to come to an end soon, but I just don’t see it happening in this matchup.

Pantoja has shown an ability in his title reign to grind out his opponents in five-round wars.

He applies constant forward pressure and despite looking tired at times he manages to push through and find a way to win, even when it gets ugly and scrappy.

Pantoja has proven his durability, showcasing a granite chin in both the Erceg fight and the Moreno rematch.

As the division's best grappler, he excels at taking his opponents' backs, maintaining control to secure rounds while constantly threatening with a variety of submissions.

While Pantoja is incredibly tough, he can be caught on the feet, particularly when he rushes in and gets reckless.

Asakura would be wise to utilize the knees he often deploys in his fights to counter Pantoja’s forward pressure. Asakura’s approach to throwing knees is unique - lunging in from the outside.

This could create an opportunity to catch Pantoja off guard, but it also carries the risk of Pantoja catching the knee and transitioning into a takedown.

Asakura is a very exciting striker and in my opinion, has 10 minutes to secure a knockout before Pantoja begins to wear him down.

The Japanese star will certainly have opportunities to land a big shot in this fight with Pantoja’s style and I could envisage some chaotic exchanges in the pocket between these two.

Asakura is simply too much of a question mark to pick in this fight with full confidence and whilst he has beaten notable names such as Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi, he has also lost to them before.

This is all while Pantoja has been fighting the elite of the elite in the UFC where he has proven on multiple occasions to be the best in the world.

Pantoja's experience at the highest level gives him a significant edge over someone making their debut, positioning him as the favourite for a decision victory or even a submission.

Asakura will have moments in the fight, as flyweight contests are often extremely back-and-forth, but Pantoja is likely to overwhelm him, particularly when forcing Asakura to scramble.

Fighter prediction: Alexandre Pantoja

Method: Decision

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Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Ian Machado Garry

Two of the best young prospects in the sport face off in the co-main event of UFC 310, with one fighter set to lose their undefeated record as 18-0 Shavkat Rakhmonov takes on 15-0 Ian Machado Garry.

The winner of this fight will likely get a shot at Belal Muhammad for the welterweight title in 2025.

Both Rakhmonov and Garry have faced mutual opponents - Geoff Neal and Neil Magny - but each fighter dealt with these opponents in different ways, showcasing their unique approaches to competition.

Rakhmonov is a marauder and is considered the ‘boogeyman’ of the division. He has finished all 18 of his professional wins with 10 coming by submission and eight coming by KO.

The Kazakh applies a relentless pace with a variety of striking techniques. He has a good jab at range with a powerful right hand.

In the pocket, he becomes especially dangerous, landing knees to the body and elbows, as demonstrated in his fight with Neal.

This style is gruelling to fight, and Shavkat must push this same pace against Ian Garry who will likely look to dance and pick apart Shavkat from the outside.

Rakhmonov can struggle to secure takedowns at times, as seen in his fight against Stephen Thompson.

However, once the fight hits the ground, he is dangerous, racking up points with vicious ground and pound and threatening with submissions.

While Rakhmonov has been hurt earlier in his career, Geoff Neal also rocked him in their fight, showing that he can be hittable. Garry will likely look to exploit this weakness in their matchup.

One thing Garry has in his favour in this match-up is speed. It’s difficult to find a current welterweight on the roster faster than the Irishman.

In addition to his quickness, Garry also possesses exceptional calf kicks, as demonstrated in his fight with Neil Magny, and is a master at maintaining range and distance.

He will need to be the matador in this fight at points to counteract the pressure that Rakhmonov will look to apply.

However, to prevent Rakhmonov from constantly moving forward, Garry will need to earn his respect.

Garry himself is also dynamic as we saw with his head kick KO over Daniel Rodriguez.

This could be the weapon that Garry chooses to deploy, particularly since Rakhmonov does not seem to have the best head movement.

However, in Garry’s last performances against Geoff Neal and Michael ‘Venom’ Page (MVP), he was criticised for not winning in the same dominant manner he did when he fought lower down the rankings.

However, in his defence, he is still a young fighter, and at just 27 years old, these experiences will serve him well going into the Rakhmonov fight.

It’s also worth noting that the two were once sparring partners, with Rakhmonov claiming he often got the better of their rounds and even managed to submit Garry during sparring.

Mixing in the wrestling will be important for Rakhmonov but with Garry’s new camp in Brazil consisting of working with Demian Maia and Charles Oliveira regularly, the grappling gap between the two may have gotten closer since their sparring if Rakhmonov is to be believed.

We saw this development in Garry's game when he was able to take MVP’s back, control him, and threaten submissions when the striking wasn’t going his way.

An early finish in this fight seems unlikely. It will likely be a back-and-forth affair, with Garry potentially taking the first round on the scorecards and possibly even the second.

However, the pace and pressure of Rakhmonov are expected to break Garry down as the fight progresses, especially with his bodywork, which could lead to a TKO with Garry's back against the cage.

Fighter prediction: Shavkat Rakhmonov

Method: KO/TKO

Round: 4

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Ciryl Gane vs Alexander Volkov 2

Two of the most technical kickboxers in the heavyweight division currently are set to do battle once again, three and a half years after their first bout in June of 2021.

Back in 2021, Gane was the undefeated prospect on the rise.

He managed to beat Volkov over five rounds to win the decision 50-45 on two of the judge's scorecards and 49-46 on the other scorecard.

Since then, Gane has gone 3-2 in his last five fights.

The Frenchman won the interim UFC heavyweight title by finishing Derrick Lewis before losing a razor-close decision in the title unification fight against Francis Ngannou which arguably should have gone Gane’s way.

Gane then rebounded by knocking out Tai Tuivasa in Paris, earning him a shot at the vacant title against Jon Jones after Ngannou’s exit from the UFC.

Gane was infamously submitted by Jones within a matter of minutes but returned home six months later and put on another vintage performance in Paris where he finished Serghei Spivac to remind everyone that he is still one of the finest heavyweights on earth.

Volkov on the other hand is currently in the best form of his career.

The Russian beat Marcin Tybura after losing to Gane but then ran into Tom Aspinall, who submitted Volkov in the first round.

Since then, Volkov has been perfect, he managed to get back-to-back first-round finishes over Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Alexandr Romanov before submitting Tai Tuivasa.

Most recently, he outclassed one of the sport’s most dangerous power punchers, dominating Sergei Pavlovich over three rounds in June.

Interestingly, despite this match only being the featured fight on the card, it is a five-round fight.

In their first fight, Gane who is known for switching stances, primarily operated out of the southpaw stance, dictated the fight with his jab and used body shots to slow Volkov down.

Gane was able to push Volkov back for most of the fight and on the rare occasions Volkov did advance - that is where he found the most success.

For the result to change in the rematch, Volkov mustn’t allow himself to be pushed back against the cage for the full fight again.

Volkov needs to establish his jab as he did in the Pavlovich fight and follow it up with straight shots before unleashing boxing combinations if he manages to push Gane back.

Another interesting factor in this rematch is we could see Gane fight out of the orthodox stance more as Tuivasa proved to have been successful in damaging Volkov’s lead leg in their fight.

Alternatively, Volkov could counteract this plan and fight Southpaw as he did so well in his most recent fight against Sergei Pavlovich.

Overall, this matchup doesn’t favour Volkov.

He finds himself in a tricky spot - technical enough to outclass and outpoint most heavyweights on the outside, but Gane is just as, if not more, technical and dynamic, with superior athleticism.

Volkov also lacks the one-punch knockout power needed to finish or drop Gane. While Volkov has improved since their first fight, and the rematch could be more competitive with Volkov taking more rounds on the scorecards, Gane remains one of the very few heavyweights capable of outpointing Volkov over five rounds.

Fighter prediction: Ciryl Gane

Method: Decision

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